The last couple of months have been intense from the inside of Catalonia, with:
- compromising leaks threatening the political union of the pro independence parties
- several members of the former Government found guilty and banned from office for organising the November 9th 2014 vote
- the President of the Catalan Parliament testifying in Court for allowing the debate about independence at the Parliament
- incompetence by the Spanish border control police at the Barcelona airport causing huge delays and the Spanish authorities failing to fix it
- the prosecutor opening due diligence to prosecute a Catalan Minister for issuing a tender to purchase ballot boxes
- the scandal of the existence of a network composed of intelligence agents, police units, politicians and the entire legal system plotting to target pro independence politicials by forging scandals and bending the interpretation of the law to serve their political purposes (check my twitter for more details, it would require several posts)
But the decisive event of the last two months took place this week. On monday Catalan President Puigdemont, Vice President Junqueras and Minister of Foreign Affairs Romeva, gave a joint conference in Madrid. This was the last attempt by the Catalan side to offer the Spanish Government to negotiate the terms of the self determination referendum. President Puigdemont warned Spanish Government President Rajoy that the referendum will take place in any case and either he could negotiate its terms now or in a few months he’d instead have to negotiate the terms of the secession.
In an unseen display of celerity Rajoy replied the following day in a press conference in which he said he would not accept “Puigdemonts’ blackmail and threat to the constitutional order”. Puigdemont replied that that was not the answer they were expecting and that it does not bring a solution any closer.
The last few days have registered an escalation of the language of the Spanish Government. Now they refer to the referendum as a Coup d’etat. It must be the first time in history that a Coup is made with ballot boxes instead of guns.
Catalonia will now proceed to call the referendum knowing Spain will use all means within their reach to repress the exercice of the vote in Catalonia. This will presumably lead to a full clash of legitimacies. On one hand the legitimacy of the Catalan people expressed through their vote, on the other the legitimacy of the post Franco Spanish regime now showing the cracks in its foundation lacking the flexibility to adapt to the changing political reality.
The key will be whether or not the Catalan people, who started this whole movement in the first place, will be able to withstand and overcome the repression long enough to defeat Spain or not. Rajoy hasn’t explained how exactly is the Spanish Government planning to stop people from voting. And there is not very much they can reasonably do without using disproportional measures that’d would effectively increase the legitimacy of Catalonia’s aspirations.
In a few months we will know.
Alea Jacta Est