Spanish elections analysis

Yesterday’s Spanish elections showed a predictable result in Spain with the absolute majority of right wing Spanish nationalists PP and the also predictable collapse of PSOE due to their mistakes in managing the crisis. This shows a uniform blue painted Spain for the first time.

In the midst of the blue tide in the Spanish State only Catalonia and the Basque Country appear clearly politically differentiated. Catalan CiU have for the first time been the most voted party in Catalonia at the Spanish elections with 16 deputies. The most noticeable change has been PSOEs collapse going from 25 deputies to 14. PP with 11 hasn’t even achieded their best results from 1993.

On the other hand we have ERC-RCat. With 3 deputies (maybe 4) Bosch has done remarkably well in stopping the downwards spiral that had started in the last two elections and was threatening to leave them without any deputies according to polls from only two months ago. Instead, they have increased their representation and could even achieve one deputy for Girona, depending on the expat votes. This shows it was a mistake to not have Reagrupament’s Quim Torra be the candidate for Girona, as Junqueras wanted.

However, these results validate Junqueras’ change of direction and shows that ERC+RCat have the potential to become the core of a broad Catalan independentist coalition for the 2014 Catalan elections. An important date since it will be the 300 anniversary of the Spanish occupation in Catalonia.

Also good news is that Catalan left wing ecologists ICV have trebled their representation and now have 3 deputies. Meaning that Spanish parties, which traditionally dominated the Spanish elections in Catalonia, with 25 deputies are quickly losing ground to Catalan parties with 21 deputies.

In the Valencian Country for the first time Coalició Compromís has managed to break the dominance of the Spanish parties and the Valencian voice will be heard in the Spanish Congreso.

In Euskadi the abertzale coalition Amaiur have achieved historical results and have become the most voted party. This hints the possibility that in the next Basque elections Basque parties could concentrate the great majority of the votes which could potentially trigger serious political changes in that country.

The clear differences in the results in Catalonia and the Basque Country with Spain question the legitimacy of any of Spain’s predictable future attacks to Catalonia’s self government, culture and institutions. A desperate Spanish State with undermined political and economic independence by the severe measures that Europe will impose will turn to Catalonia’s self-government as a scapegoat. Hopefully, with a lot of work and a bit of luck these may be the last Spanish elections for Catalonia.

In the meantime, even though they are two very different situations in Catalonia we have some lessons to learn from the Basques. Until April it was them who looked towards Catalonia because of the popular referendums of independence but after the successes of Bildu in May and now Amaiur they seem to have found a way to translate the popular demand for independence into a political representation in a way that Catalan parties have failed to do.

Update: Syniadau have written an excellent analysis of the Spanish elections results. I recommend it.

Pictures by El Punt Avui

Per què he votat ERC-RCat-CatSí

Per si a algú li pot interessar avui estic content. Estic content perquè ja he enviat el meu vot, ja que sóc resident a l’estranger i ho he pogut fer a una llista que de fet m’agrada, em sembla que abans només m’havia passat una vegada.

Després de tot el que ha passat amb els partits independentistes els últims anys finalment es veuen brots verds. ERC i Reagrupament concorren junts a unes eleccions i per mi la presència de Reagrupament és la garantia que aquesta vegada per a ERC la independència no és un objectiu secundari i es posa la llavor per a una gran coalició independentista en un futur proper.

Vaig ser molt crític amb ERC al passat i puc entendre que per a molta gent encara estan en fase de proves per a veure quina és la dimensió de la renovació. Però després de la davallada d’ERC a les últimes dues eleccions només un nom em venia al cap com a possible renovació: Junqueras. I va passar. Els militants ho han vist i l’anterior direcció s’ha fet a una banda sense crear més faccions i obrir nous conflictes.

En quant a en Junqueras ja fa temps que el seguia llegint amb interés sobre les seves iniciatives al Parlament Europeu i escoltant els seus discursos i no només vaig descobrir algú que coneix profundament la història del seu país sinó es va guanyar la meva confiança per pensar que ho intentarà amb totes les seves forces. I no acaba aquí, no només en Junqueras ara és al capdavant d’ERC sinó que a sobre tenim com a candidat a Madrid a l’Alfred Bosch i per no parlar de pesos pesants com en Carretero donant un cop de mà a la campanya.

Per altra banda, no he pogut trobar motius per a votar CiU, no només no m’agrada que fins ara després que l’any passat fessin una campanya centrada en l’eix nacional i el concert fiscal una vegada al govern només s’han concentrat en les retallades sense fer cap tipus de pedagogia sobre l’espoliació, semblen no tenir més idees que retallar i retallar, vacil·len en la defensa del país davant dels constants atacs d’Espanya, el concert fiscal va passar a dir-se “pacte fiscal” i no semblen tenir cap projecte de reconstrucció nacional.

I centrant-nos més en en Duran. El candidat al Congreso és anacrònic, porta més de 30 anys dedicant-se a la política de forma professional i està totalment amortitzat. Diu que no vol la independència del seu país, i defensa orgullosament que va actuar amb “sentit d’estat” (espanyol, s’entén) salvant-lo repetidament d’una intervenció europea. Encara que aquest sigui el mateix estat que perpetra l’espoliació fiscal, es carrega l’estatut votat en referèndum, tomba la immersió lingüística, bloqueja l’oficialitat del català a Europa, actua contra els nostres interessos estratègics, com el corredor mediterrani o els aeroports, instiga el racisme anticatalà o fa broma sobre bombardejar Barcelona, entre moltes altres coses.

Quan el centre polític del país s’ha mogut massivament cap a posicions independentistes no podem tenim a un aferrissat defensor de l’estat espanyol al capdavant d’un partit català a Madrid. Penso que no votar Duran és facilitar la renovació de CiU i l’acostament d’aquesta cap a posicions sobiranistes. Que en Duran hagi estat repetidament el polític més ben valorat pels espanyols és senyal que no fa la seva feina.

D’altra banda l’Alfred Bosch m’agrada, i m’agrada perquè no és un polític professional, perquè està fent una campanya excel·lent en clau positiva i dirigida als catalans i a aquests es dirigirà des de Madrid amb l’altaveu li donarem. M’agrada que per fi una coalició catalana hagi decidit que no vol canviar Espanya, que només vol començar a preparar el divorci. Recomano aquesta entrevista a l’Alfred Bosch a l’Àgora de TV3.

I mentrestant s’haurà de pressionar a CiU per negociar la independència fiscal (a la qual no hem de tenir por ja que no faria més que augmentar les ganes d’independència, com a Euskadi i Navarra) i quan no s’aconsegueixi estendre-li la mà i ajudar-la en el seu camí cap a la construcció d’un estat català.

Madrid és un altaveu que no hem de desaprofitar ja que tots els corresponsals estrangers llegeixen la premsa espanyola, de la qual tots en coneixem la seva qualitat i que per tant tenen una idea molt esbiaixada de la realitat a Catalunya. Per desgràcia en la majoria de casos aquests corresponsals repeteixen tal qual als mitjans internacionals allò que llegeixen i escolten allà.

Necessitem una veu com la de Bosch a Madrid. S’apropen temps difícils i cal que els catalans tinguem una veu clara, valenta i el més forta possible per a tirar endavant el gran repte de la nostra generació, crear l’estat català. El moment decisiu s’apropa.

New leaderships for Catalan Independentism

ERC have gone from being on their way to being the second Catalan party to being in danger of becoming irrelevant after the last two rounds of elections and has left Catalan independentism clearly underrepresented in the Catalan Parliament. It seems now that the party has finally come to the conclusion that it needs to change strategy since the current prioritizing the left wing policies over the independentism has proven disastrous. Also, ERC hasn’t been able to deal with the different ideological and power struggles from within which have progressively weakened it.

Since May it has not been able to be an effective oposition and make CiU’s contradictions more clear in the face of the severe cuts applied to the Generalitat’s budget and the deals CiU has closed with PP.

So when internal elections in ERC were called everyone looked over to Brussels for Oriol Junqueras. Junqueras, an independent euro MP for ERC has stayed away from all the internal struggles while at the same time managing to collect a promising array of successes. His most recent achievement was to win the the municipal elections in Sant Vicenç dels Horts, the biggest council that ERC have won in the past municipal elections. Junqueras is now virtually ERC’s president, since noone else has taken a step forward to compete for the position.

Junqueras has managed to articulate a Catalan front, siding with CiU (Ramon Tremosa) and ICV (Oriol Romeva), in Brussels and also in Sant Vincenç which great success in defending Catalan interests and creating a set of alliances which make sense and that many people would like to see translated into the Catalan and Spanish Parliaments.

Junqueras’ appointment as leader of ERC sends a very clear message. ERC wants to take the lead as the main party of Catalan independentism. Also, a lot of care has been taken to avoid internal struggles and to make the handover period as smooth and peaceful as possible.

But now a new front has been opened. The upcoming elections to the Spanish Parliament (Congreso de los Diputados) on November the 20th finds ERC in the middle of its transition. On September the 17th ERC members will also elect their candidate for the Spanish elections. The
options are Joan Ridao and Alfred Bosch.

Bosch, a successful writer and historian, was the spokesman for Barcelonadecideix.cat, the entity formed by volunteers which organised the popular referendum for independence in Barcelona last April, and has accepted the challenge at Junqueras’ request. Bosch is perceived, as an independent, to be an excellent choice for leading a Catalan coalition in Madrid.

If Bosch is elected interesting things may happen. Reagrupament have already shown interest in a coalition and the members of SI have voted that the party can only go to Madrid within a Catalan coalition, so they are forced to speak with ERC. If this finally takes place it could steal a chunk of votes from CiU since their candidate Duran i Lleida has a clear profile against independence and many of CiU’s independentist voters would not feel comfortable voting him.

Pictures by Oriol Junqueras and BarcelonaDecideix2011